Vietnam economy 2015 prospect

Overall, in middle term, according to the assessment of experts, Vietnam GDP growth rate will remain at a modest level. And, the stable status of macro-economy will be improved. Vietnam economy 2015 will be more sustainable than that in 2014.

Optimistic outlook

According to the assessment of experts, Vietnam GDP growth rate will remain at a modest level. Vietnam economy 2015 will be more sustainable. On December 10, 2014, the United Nations released a report on the situation and the economic outlook in 2015. The report showed that the global economy is forecasted to continue to grow in the next two years despite the remnants of financial crisis and geopolitical challenges of global and Ebola epidemic in West Africa curbing the growth. The global economy is forecasted to grow 3.1% in 2015 and increased by 3.3% in 2016. However, the world will still face many challenges and confuse about restructuring and searching models, new motivation of growth in which high unemployment prolongs and puts pressure on increasing public debt tension and military, border, territorial and political bilateral or multilateral conflict worldwide.

According to forecasts of several international organizations, in 2015, Vietnam will achieve GDP growth from 5.8 to 6.2%, and annual CPI below 7%. Vietnam export will have more important breakthroughs by getting more active momentum of development since the FTAs that Vietnam is and will be involved, typically ASEAN Economic Community, TPP, Vietnam - Korea FTD and Vietnam - Union Russian Customs - Belarus - Kazakhstan... Resolution on Economic - Social Development 2015 Plan is passed by Congress, with 89.54% of votes, which has set a goal for 2015, increased by 6.2% of GDP. Total Vietnam exports will increase by about 10%; deficit will rise about 5%, and growth of CPI will increase about 5%, while, the total investment of social development accounts for 30-32% of GDP; the poverty rate will decrease from 1.7 to 2%, particularly in poor districts decreased by 4%; creating jobs for 1.6 million workers. The unemployment rate in urban areas is less than 4%; the trained employee rate will reach 50%. The rate of malnourished children under five will drop below 15%.

According to the National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC), economic growth in 2015 will continue the trend of recovery, and growth rate of 6.2% is feasible. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic environment has conditions to maintain stability, especially for inflation control target. As the forecast for 2015 the world oil price decreases 33%. Domestic petroleum price is assumed to decrease equivalently. NFSC estimated that domestic production cost will decrease by 3%. The industries of tourism, agriculture, and aquaculture will continue to grow smoothly. Export of labor, both unskilled and high-skilled labor, including physicians, intermediate nurses will be one of new groundbreaking focuses for employment growth. Auxiliary industry is being gradually shaped and developed towards participating international supply chain with the participants in FTAs with Vietnam. The M & A activity will increase, especially in the field of real estate, manufacturing and consuming goods, banking, and textiles, and mechanical engineering...

Macroeconomic stability priority

The economy of Vietnam in 2015 will be brighter and developed more than that in 2014. The foreign investment in Vietnam will continues to play an important role as a driving force of Vietnam economic growth. Reforms in state-owned enterprises sector will be accelerated to achieve set targets. Accelerating the reform of the banking sector continues to be a priority. Banking raise interest rates will be more difficult to fall, but credit growth will be faster due to investment opportunities and open credit conditions, creating thrust to support economic growth. Bad debts are controlled and flexibly processed gradually in the goal of ensuring stable system and gradually approaching the standards and common practices. The industries expected to grow strongly from 2015 are real estate, construction materials and services, consuming services, consumer products, and agro - forestry products. Investment in open-end funds is an option to attract more and more attention from private investors.

In particular, a new cycle of Vietnam real estate market is forming, increasingly growing in size, speed, and balance and more efficient in the last years of the decade with the most promising in the segments of social accommodation with affordable price and ensuring the quality. To achieve the goal of socio - economic development in 2015, Vietnam should implement effectively strategic breakthroughs; restructure economy associated with the conversion pattern of growth, quality improvement, increasing efficiency and competitiveness of products, businesses and the economy, and efficiency of State management. Especially, it is necessary to improve efficiency of capital investment, ensure public debt, government debt and foreign debt within safe limits of the nation. Also, it is necessary to ensure the progress of disbursement of fundamental capital construction investment, especially in the State budget, government bonds, ODA, focus investment fund for the important works which are likely to be completed in 2015. Urgent projects, residential stability and favorable livelihood for the people need prioritizing fundings.

Effectively implementing international treaties in which Vietnam is a member; actively negotiate and sign bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements, building ASEAN Community by 2015; and promote communication, guidance and support appropriate to businesses and local people in the integration process. Positive outlook for the economy in Vietnam will be bolded and realized together with the comprehensive reform, accelerating the restructure associated with the development of innovative models, improving effective and efficient management of law, in addition to promoting democracy, against corruption.